FROZEN CONFIRMATORY FINDINGS

The 80/80 service-reliability boundary

Final v1.0 evidence from the Beykoz pilot.

FROZEN RESEARCH RECORD v1.0.0 DOI · 10.5281/zenodo.21903851 Concept DOI · 10.5281/zenodo.21903850 OSF Registration DOI · 10.17605/OSF.IO/ZTJXK Published engrXiv Preprint · 10.31224/7979
Primary estimand: the synthetic severity at which P(reachability ≥ 80%) crosses 80%.

Final Global Minimum-Cost boundary estimates

Responders Boundary 95% world-bootstrap interval
120.1425000.134000–0.148462
140.1491670.142500–0.156000
160.1525000.145333–0.160000
200.1545000.147000–0.163214
240.1583330.148462–0.168214
320.1625000.154167–0.172727
Reliability boundary by responder count
More responders move the boundary upward, with diminishing marginal gains.
Confirmatory service probability curves
Extended service-probability curves close the high-resource upper boundary.
Marginal reliability-boundary gain
Boundary gain per additional responder declines across the tested range.

What survives statistical correction?

For total response time, Global Minimum-Cost Assignment beat sequential Greedy in every confirmatory grid cell after Holm correction.

Faramarz Kowsari

AUTHOR

Faramarz Kowsari

Author · Software Engineer · AI Researcher