Evidence ledger

Research status, without pretending unfinished work is a result.

This page is intentionally conservative. It separates verified software milestones from empirical claims that do not yet exist.

ComponentStatusMeaning
EPİAŞ authenticated REST clientImplementedCode supports CAS TGT authentication and three official electricity endpoints.
Hourly data alignmentImplementedConsumption, generation and MCP can be joined by timestamp and transformed into model variables.
Synthetic smoke datasetImplementedUsed only to test pipeline behavior; not evidence about Türkiye.
Shared TransformerImplementedCompact multi-task mean + scale model exists and is unit-tested.
Conformal utilityImplementedCalibration machinery exists; no real-data coverage claim yet.
Real historical EPİAŞ auditPendingMust establish usable temporal overlap, missingness and schema stability.
Exploratory baseline comparisonPendingNo model superiority statement is currently supported.
OSF preregistrationNot yet createdThe protocol is a draft and must not be described as preregistered.
Confirmatory holdout runNot executedNo confirmatory effect estimate or p-value exists.
Journal/preprint manuscript resultsPendingThe manuscript scaffold contains no fabricated result section.
Current scientific conclusion: none about forecasting superiority. The defensible conclusion at v0.1.0 is that a reproducible software and study-design scaffold has been constructed and is ready for real-data audit.